REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Feb. 27, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose in January for the sixth month in a row - this time by 0.3 per cent. There are indications that the current CLI rise represents the renewal of faster growth.
All six components rise on the previous month. The largest contribution is from a rise in the value of fish catches. The long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation. Also, there is some uncertainty related to local wage determination, but disputes could turn outlook to the worse.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica’s CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica’s CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For the month of January, four of the six underlying components rise year on year. However, all six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for January rises to 102.2 or by 0.3 per cent. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. July 2018. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2017-2018 | |||||||
| Change in % | Indication | ||||||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | ||||
| 2017 | |||||||
| January | 99.4 | -0.3 | % | -1.5 | % | July 2017 | |
| February | 99.4 | 0.0 | % | -1.5 | % | August | |
| March | 99.5 | 0.0 | % | -1.4 | % | Sept. | |
| April | 99.3 | -0.2 | % | -1.5 | % | Oct. | |
| May | 99.0 | -0.3 | % | -1.8 | % | Nov. | |
| June | 98.6 | -0.3 | % | -2.0 | % | Dec. | |
| July | 98.6 | -0.1 | % | -2.1 | % | Jan. 2018 | |
| August | 99.0 | 0.5 | % | -1.6 | % | Feb. | |
| September | 99.8 | 0.8 | % | -0.7 | % | March | |
| October | 100.7 | 0.8 | % | 0.3 | % | April | |
| November | 101.4 | 0.7 | % | 1.3 | % | May | |
| December | 101.8 | 0.5 | % | 2.1 | % | June | |
| 2018 | |||||||
| January | 102.2 | 0.3 | % | 2.8 | % | July | |
The February Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on March 19, 2018.
Further information is provided by Analytica’s CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is