ATLANTA, Oct. 31, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE: GTN and GTN.A) today released results from the company’s second national poll of congressional candidates less than two weeks before the U.S. midterm elections. Likely voters in Florida, North Dakota and West Virginia were polled to assess changes in candidate support and favorability, as well as state ballot measure support.
"We are watching closely as communities all across our country come out to exercise their right to vote this November," said President and CEO of Gray Television, Hilton Howell. “These survey results are helping to paint a better picture of how our nation is changing in a way that is unbiased and honest.”
The survey shows a growing lead for Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, while Senator Heidi Heitkamp fell further behind her Republican opponent heading into the final weeks of the campaign. Results show a tightening race in Florida, with Democratic Senator Bill Nelson narrowly leading Republican Rick Scott.
The poll was the second of two surveys conducted ahead of the midterm elections by Gray Television in partnership with Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas.
“The results of these polls illustrate the complexity of the 2018 electoral environment in different parts of the country,” said Dr. James Henson, a principal at Strategic Research Associates, LLC, adding, “The different dynamics evident in North Dakota, West Virginia, and Florida underline the importance of state-level polling in informing the public about the political dynamics in their communities.”
Florida
According to a survey of 800 likely voters in Florida conducted between October 16 - 23, 2018, both state’s high-profile races for Senator and Governor are within the margin of error, with incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson leading Governor Rick Scott 46% to 45%, and Republican Ron DeSantis leading Democrat Andrew Gillum 48% to 45%. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.46%.
At this late stage in the race, 89% of Nelson’s supporters say that their vote is decided, or that they probably won’t change their mind, compared with 86% of Scott’s supporters. In the Governor’s race, 79% of DeSantis’ supporters appear similarly set on their decision, compared with 87% of Gillum supporters.
Nelson is viewed favorably by 43% of likely voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 5% unfamiliar. Scott is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. Gillum is viewed favorably by 40% of likely voters and unfavorably by 35%, with 13% holding a neutral opinion and 11% still unfamiliar. DeSantis is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 39%, with 9% holding a neutral opinion and 10% unfamiliar.
When asked about their vote for Congress, Florida voters continue to be closely divided along partisan lines. The Gray Television poll finds them preferring the generic Republican candidate over the generic Democratic candidate by a 42% to 41% margin, also within the poll’s margin of error.
North Dakota
According to a survey of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 - 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage.
Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs.
Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him.
In the race for North Dakota’s seat in Congress, Republican Kelly Armstrong leads Democrat Mac Schneider 56% to 35%, with 9% undecided. Forty-five percent hold a favorable view of Armstrong while 16% hold an unfavorable view, with 20% expressing a neutral opinion. Schneider is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters, unfavorably by 17%, with the remainder either neutral (19%) or unfamiliar (31%) with the Democratic candidate.
Poll results in the race for Attorney General find Republican Wayne Stenehjem leading Democrat David Clark Thompson 67% to 27%. In the race for Secretary of State, Al Yaeger, running as an independent, leads Democrat Josh Boschee 51% to 29%. Independent Michael Coachman registered 4% support.
West Virginia
According to a survey of 650 likely voters in West Virginia conducted between October 12 - 19, 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Joseph Manchin has the support of 52% of the electorate (a 6-point increase over Gray Television polling in September), with 36% expressing support for Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey. Four percent expressed support for Rusty Hollen, while 8% have yet to make up their mind.
Manchin has solidified his lead since the last Gray Television poll in September, though a notable share of both his and Morrisey’s voters still say that they might change their mind before Election Day. This bloc of weakly attached voters includes 10% of Manchin supporters who say their support is “Not too strong” and 4% who say the same about their support for Morrisey.
Manchin is viewed favorably by 49% of likely voters and unfavorably by 30%, with 15% expressing a neutral opinion and 6% unfamiliar with him. Morrisey is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters and unfavorably by 45%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 10% unfamiliar.
When asked about their vote for Congress, West Virginia voters prefer the generic Republican candidate over the generic Democratic candidate by a 44% to 36% margin, statistically indistinguishable from September polling.
About Gray Television:
Currently, Gray owns and/or operates over 100 television stations across 57 television markets that collectively broadcast nearly 250 program streams including over 100 channels affiliated with the CBS Network, the NBC Network, the ABC Network and the FOX Network. Our portfolio includes the number-one and/or number-two ranked television station operations in all of our markets. Gray has entered into an agreement to combine with Raycom Media, Inc. in a transformational transaction. The combined company will own leading television stations and digital platforms serving 92 markets. It also will include video program production, marketing, and digital businesses including Raycom Sports, Tupelo-Raycom, and RTM Studios, the producer of PowerNation programs and content. For further information, please visit www.gray.tv.
About Strategic Research Associates, LLC:
Strategic Research Associates, LLC, based in Austin, Texas, specializes in political polling and research. The principals, James Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD, have played major roles in political polling and research projects at the state and national level for more than a decade. They can be contacted at SRATEXLLC@gmail.com.
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