LONDON, Jan. 14, 2003 (PRIMEZONE) -- This trading update is aimed at providing an overview of the revenue and trading conditions experienced by BP (NYSE:BP) (LSE:BP) during the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2002.
The fourth quarter volume, realisations, margin, demand, debt, tax rate and other data referred to below are currently provisional, some being drawn from figures applicable to the first month or so of the quarter. All such data are subject to change and may differ quite considerably from the final numbers that will be reported on February 11, 2003. The statement is produced in order to provide greater disclosure to investors and potential investors of some currently expected outcomes primarily related to revenue, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information at the same time.
-- Liquids realisations are expected to be broadly in line with last
quarter. U.S. gas realisations are expected to rise slightly ahead of
the change in Henry Hub marker price.
-- The overall refining and marketing trading environment deteriorated
relative to 3Q.
-- The chemicals indicator margin is expected to weaken against 3Q
levels as prices lagged the rise in feedstock costs. Demand remains
sluggish.
Exploration and Production
Hydrocarbon production, as indicated at the time of our 3Q results, is expected to be up about 3% and 1.5% for the full-year and 4Q respectively compared with last year.
4Q'02 3Q'02 4Q'01
Brent dated ($/bbl) 26.88 26.91 19.41
WTI ($/bbl) 28.31 28.26 20.31
ANS USWC ($/bbl) 26.86 27.26 17.79
Gas Henry Hub first of month index
($/mmbtu) 3.99 3.16 2.43
U.K. gas price -- National Balancing
Point (p/therm) 19.09 12.74 22.32
Gas, Power and Renewables
North American NGL margins are expected to be slightly lower than 3Q. Our interest in Ruhrgas was sold in 3Q and therefore no contribution from Ruhrgas will appear in 4Q.
Refining and Marketing
4Q 2002 3Q 2002 4Q 2001
Refining Global Indicator Margin(a)
($/bbl.)
NWE 2.19 1.28 1.53
U.S. Gulf Coast 2.98 1.82 1.79
U.S. Midwest 4.09 3.27 2.63
U.S. West Coast 3.95 3.54 6.25
Singapore 1.41 0.47 1.20
Global Indicator Margin (GIM) 2.76 1.98 2.40
(a) The refining Global Indicator Margin is a weighted average based on
BP's portfolio. Actual Margins may vary because of refinery
configuration, crude slate and operating practices.
The 4Q'02 Refining GIM is estimated to be higher than 3Q'02. However, realised margins are expected to be lower than that implied by the GIM, due to the actual crude slate used by our refinery system, and a compression of margins for products not included in the GIM calculation.
4Q'02 retail margins are expected to be down from 3Q'02 due to seasonal declines compounded by significant crude price increases at year end.
Chemicals
Weighted Chemicals Indicator Margin(a) ($/te)
4Q'02 3Q'02 2Q'02 4Q'01
N/a 115 109 112
(a) The Chemicals Indicator Margin is a weighted average of externally-
based product margins. It is based on market data collected by Chem
Systems in their quarterly market analyses, then weighted on BP's
product portfolio.
This is described more fully in the Group's quarterly results releases.
Chemicals margins in 4Q'02 are expected to be weaker than the prior quarter as product prices were unable to compensate for significantly higher feedstock and utility costs. Petrochemicals demand remains sluggish across all regions.
Debt/Balance Sheet
The Group's net debt gearing ratio on a proforma basis at quarter-end is expected to be around 28-29%, in line with the 3Q level of 28.7%.
Tax
The Group's effective tax rate for the fourth quarter on the pro forma result adjusted for special items is expected to be around 33-34%, compared with 34.5% in the third quarter.
This information is provided by RNS, the company news service from the London Stock Exchange.